Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to decline steadily for the remainder of 2025 amid rising tariffs, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) Global Port Tracker report.

“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” says NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”

U.S. ports handled 2.36 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July, up 20.1% from June and up 1.8% year over year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs set to take effect in August. 

Ports have not released numbers for August, but the Global Port Tracker projects the month at 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7% year over year but higher than the 2.2 million TEU expected before the postponement of China tariffs and the new tariff on India.

September forecasts report 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year; October at 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%, and November at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%. December is forecast at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1% year over year, the slowest month since March 2023.