Import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to bounce back this month after a significant decrease in late spring, but is expected to fall again after previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker.
“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to Aug. 1 is greatly appreciated. Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs. Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for U.S. retailers.”
President Donald Trump’s recent executive order delayed “reciprocal” tariffs until August 1 and announced tariffs of up to 40% on more than a dozen countries. Uncertainty still surrounds other tariff decisions the president will make.
“A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,” says Ben Hackett, Hackett Associates founder. “The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”
The U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in May, down 11.8% from April and down 6.4% year over year. Ports have not reported data for June, but the Global Port Tracker projects the month at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9% from May but down 3.7% year over year.
